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 Re: Bayesian stats & a Q Daniel Pfeffer16-Dec-20 9:42 Daniel Pfeffer 16-Dec-20 9:42
 Re: Bayesian stats & a Q Daniel Pfeffer16-Dec-20 9:40 Daniel Pfeffer 16-Dec-20 9:40
 Re: Bayesian stats & a Q Nelek16-Dec-20 9:55 Nelek 16-Dec-20 9:55
 Re: Bayesian stats & a Q Sander Rossel16-Dec-20 9:58 Sander Rossel 16-Dec-20 9:58
 Re: Bayesian stats & a Q W∴ Balboos, GHB16-Dec-20 10:13 W∴ Balboos, GHB 16-Dec-20 10:13
In your latter scenario, you are excluding that if you try more than one than if your last throw (for example, of the first three rolls) is a 20 you are already beginning the next string.

I don't feel like the math, but there are 400 way you can have a 20 for your last roll, 20 of these are for 20 in the last two rolls (subtract 1 if you have already succeeded).

So, whilst it 1:8000 for the first three rolls you may succeed if your fourth roll is a twenty once in 400 times and and if the last two were twenty, then your 4th roll has a 1:20 chance of you winning. These added opportunities will happen roughly one throw in 20 if you chain.

Nothing in your description precludes appending the rolls - any 3 in a row fulfills its requirement.

Ravings en masse^
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010

 Re: Bayesian stats & a Q Greg Utas16-Dec-20 10:27 Greg Utas 16-Dec-20 10:27
 Re: Bayesian stats & a Q Daniel Pfeffer16-Dec-20 10:48 Daniel Pfeffer 16-Dec-20 10:48
 Re: Bayesian stats & a Q Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter16-Dec-20 11:41 Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter 16-Dec-20 11:41
 Re: Bayesian stats & a Q Gerry Schmitz16-Dec-20 12:35 Gerry Schmitz 16-Dec-20 12:35
 Re: Bayesian stats & a Q DRHuff16-Dec-20 12:53 DRHuff 16-Dec-20 12:53
 Re: Bayesian stats & a Q MKJCP17-Dec-20 3:25 MKJCP 17-Dec-20 3:25
 Re: Bayesian stats & a Q Amarnath S16-Dec-20 14:58 Amarnath S 16-Dec-20 14:58
 Re: Bayesian stats & a Q Amarnath S17-Dec-20 4:34 Amarnath S 17-Dec-20 4:34
 Re: Bayesian stats & a Q Andreas Mertens17-Dec-20 4:33 Andreas Mertens 17-Dec-20 4:33
 Re: Bayesian stats & a Q PhilipOakley17-Dec-20 5:24 PhilipOakley 17-Dec-20 5:24
 Thought of the Day OriginalGriff16-Dec-20 5:57 OriginalGriff 16-Dec-20 5:57
 Re: Thought of the Day W∴ Balboos, GHB16-Dec-20 6:24 W∴ Balboos, GHB 16-Dec-20 6:24
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