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JokeRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Daniel Pfeffer16-Dec-20 8:42
professionalDaniel Pfeffer16-Dec-20 8:42 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Daniel Pfeffer16-Dec-20 8:40
professionalDaniel Pfeffer16-Dec-20 8:40 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus16-Dec-20 10:54
mvaraddevus16-Dec-20 10:54 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Nelek16-Dec-20 8:55
protectorNelek16-Dec-20 8:55 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus16-Dec-20 10:55
mvaraddevus16-Dec-20 10:55 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Sander Rossel16-Dec-20 8:58
professionalSander Rossel16-Dec-20 8:58 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus16-Dec-20 10:56
mvaraddevus16-Dec-20 10:56 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
W Balboos, GHB16-Dec-20 9:13
mveW Balboos, GHB16-Dec-20 9:13 
In your latter scenario, you are excluding that if you try more than one than if your last throw (for example, of the first three rolls) is a 20 you are already beginning the next string.


I don't feel like the math, but there are 400 way you can have a 20 for your last roll, 20 of these are for 20 in the last two rolls (subtract 1 if you have already succeeded).

So, whilst it 1:8000 for the first three rolls you may succeed if your fourth roll is a twenty once in 400 times and and if the last two were twenty, then your 4th roll has a 1:20 chance of you winning. These added opportunities will happen roughly one throw in 20 if you chain.

Nothing in your description precludes appending the rolls - any 3 in a row fulfills its requirement.



Ravings en masse^
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010

GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Greg Utas16-Dec-20 9:27
mveGreg Utas16-Dec-20 9:27 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Daniel Pfeffer16-Dec-20 9:48
professionalDaniel Pfeffer16-Dec-20 9:48 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus16-Dec-20 10:58
mvaraddevus16-Dec-20 10:58 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter16-Dec-20 10:41
professionalKornfeld Eliyahu Peter16-Dec-20 10:41 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus16-Dec-20 10:59
mvaraddevus16-Dec-20 10:59 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Gerry Schmitz16-Dec-20 11:35
mveGerry Schmitz16-Dec-20 11:35 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus16-Dec-20 11:51
mvaraddevus16-Dec-20 11:51 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
DRHuff16-Dec-20 11:53
MemberDRHuff16-Dec-20 11:53 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
MKJCP17-Dec-20 2:25
MemberMKJCP17-Dec-20 2:25 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Amarnath S16-Dec-20 13:58
professionalAmarnath S16-Dec-20 13:58 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus17-Dec-20 2:37
mvaraddevus17-Dec-20 2:37 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Amarnath S17-Dec-20 3:34
professionalAmarnath S17-Dec-20 3:34 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Andreas Mertens17-Dec-20 3:33
professionalAndreas Mertens17-Dec-20 3:33 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus17-Dec-20 4:22
mvaraddevus17-Dec-20 4:22 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
PhilipOakley17-Dec-20 4:24
professionalPhilipOakley17-Dec-20 4:24 
GeneralThought of the Day Pin
OriginalGriff16-Dec-20 4:57
mveOriginalGriff16-Dec-20 4:57 
GeneralRe: Thought of the Day Pin
W Balboos, GHB16-Dec-20 5:24
mveW Balboos, GHB16-Dec-20 5:24 

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