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GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus16-Dec-20 10:54
mvaraddevus16-Dec-20 10:54 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Nelek16-Dec-20 8:55
protectorNelek16-Dec-20 8:55 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus16-Dec-20 10:55
mvaraddevus16-Dec-20 10:55 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Sander Rossel16-Dec-20 8:58
professionalSander Rossel16-Dec-20 8:58 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus16-Dec-20 10:56
mvaraddevus16-Dec-20 10:56 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
W Balboos, GHB16-Dec-20 9:13
mveW Balboos, GHB16-Dec-20 9:13 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Greg Utas16-Dec-20 9:27
mveGreg Utas16-Dec-20 9:27 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Daniel Pfeffer16-Dec-20 9:48
professionalDaniel Pfeffer16-Dec-20 9:48 
Using a "moving window", you have the following cases:

(Last throw was NOT 20): occurs 19/20 times, chance of 1/8000 of throwing three 20s in the next three moves
(Last throw was a 20, next to last throw was something else): Occurs 19/400 times, chance of 1/400 of throwing two 20s in the next two moves
(last two throws were a 20, previous throw was something else): occurs 19/8000 times, chance of 1/20 of throwing a 20 in the next move
(last three throws were a 20): occurs 1/8000 times.

Total incidence: 19/20 + 19/400 + 19/8000 + 1/8000 = (7600 + 380 + 19 + 1) / 8000

Any of the 4 cases may occur, so P is additive.
P = 19/20 * 1/8000 + 19/400 * 1/400 + 19/8000 * 1/20 + 1/8000 * 1 = 19/160000 + 19/160000 + 19/160000 + 20/160000 = 77/160000 ~ 1/2000- (slightly under 1/2000).

The difference from the triples result is because each 20 has a chance to participate multiple times. In this case, N(50%) would be 1440.
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-- 6079 Smith W.

GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus16-Dec-20 10:58
mvaraddevus16-Dec-20 10:58 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter16-Dec-20 10:41
professionalKornfeld Eliyahu Peter16-Dec-20 10:41 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus16-Dec-20 10:59
mvaraddevus16-Dec-20 10:59 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Gerry Schmitz16-Dec-20 11:35
mveGerry Schmitz16-Dec-20 11:35 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus16-Dec-20 11:51
mvaraddevus16-Dec-20 11:51 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
DRHuff16-Dec-20 11:53
MemberDRHuff16-Dec-20 11:53 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
MKJCP17-Dec-20 2:25
MemberMKJCP17-Dec-20 2:25 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Amarnath S16-Dec-20 13:58
professionalAmarnath S16-Dec-20 13:58 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus17-Dec-20 2:37
mvaraddevus17-Dec-20 2:37 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Amarnath S17-Dec-20 3:34
professionalAmarnath S17-Dec-20 3:34 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
Andreas Mertens17-Dec-20 3:33
professionalAndreas Mertens17-Dec-20 3:33 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
raddevus17-Dec-20 4:22
mvaraddevus17-Dec-20 4:22 
GeneralRe: Bayesian stats & a Q Pin
PhilipOakley17-Dec-20 4:24
professionalPhilipOakley17-Dec-20 4:24 
GeneralThought of the Day Pin
OriginalGriff16-Dec-20 4:57
mveOriginalGriff16-Dec-20 4:57 
GeneralRe: Thought of the Day Pin
W Balboos, GHB16-Dec-20 5:24
mveW Balboos, GHB16-Dec-20 5:24 
GeneralI'm clever this morning Pin
honey the codewitch16-Dec-20 4:47
mvahoney the codewitch16-Dec-20 4:47 
GeneralRe: I'm clever this morning Pin
PIEBALDconsult16-Dec-20 5:24
professionalPIEBALDconsult16-Dec-20 5:24 

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Straw Poll

When building an application, when is the most important time to consider the User Experience?
They are the ones we write code for, right?
  Results   152 votes